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Apr, 11th 16:14

In a speech about the economy last week, a permanent voter on policy said that “a cautious and gradual approach to policy normalization is appropriate.” He also said that he expected the economy to witness 2% overall expansion this year with the unemployment rate dropping to about 4.75% from the current rate of 5% .

Dudley did not expect the inflation rate of the US to reach 2% goal this year. This  is likely to force the Federal Reserve to release additional accommodations. Low oil and commodity prices may create more disinflationary pressures than he had predicted. He also indicated that there is some uncertainty about the prospects of the global economy growth.

The US Whole sale Inventories data was also released at 0.5% decline, the sharpest decline since May 2013. It measures the change in the total value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers. Weak inventories in the first quarter of the year could lead to catch-up growth of the economy prospect in the next quarter as companies can restock their shelves.

Today, the Italian Industrial Production was published 0.6% decline after witnessing 1.7% rise in January. The data, which is a leading indicator of economic health, measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

In the USA, the market is waiting for the speech of the US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, taken at the Council on Foreign Relations today. Besides, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley’s talk about the community development is also being awaited. It will held at the Association for Neighborhood and Housing Development’s annual conference.

The event which draws market’s attention the most maybe the unexpected meeting of Fed. On April 8, Fed announced that it will hold a closed meeting “under expedited procedures”, during which the Board of Governors will review and determine advance and discount rates charged by the Fed banks. The last “unexpected meeting” was held only less than a month before the FOMC launched its first rate hike in years in December.


Fig: EURUSD D1 Technical Chart

The Euro went down slightly against the US dollar at 1.13812. The pair EURUSD has just escaped the overbought territory and hovers around the zone of the resistance 1.14973, the highest level from the beginning of the year.  With RSI at 64.83, the price is anticipated to go down and hit test the support level at 1.10525 before bouncing back.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 1.14380, Buy Digital Put Option at 1.13751.

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