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At the press conference yesterday, ECB President Mario Draghi announced that interest rates would stay at the current, record lows for a long time. This statement slapped the Euro hard, and EURUSD fell as low as $1.1270 from the 1-week highs of $1.1399.
The US dollar was supported by rising US Treasury yields, which hit a three-week high overnight due to the surge in oil prices and declining demand for safe-haven US bonds. The dollar index, which measures the currency’s strength against a basket of currencies, was flat in the early Asian session at 94.613, dropping 0.1 percent for the week.
Oil prices surged on Friday due to the decrease in US crude oil inventories, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) announcement that oil production will be reduced in 2016. These reports have helped relieve some of the worry on global oil oversupply.
On April 26-27, the Federal Reserve will hold its own policy review. The Fed is not expected to spring any major surprises. Investors expect that The Fed might use its policy statement to give the market some early hints regarding another rate hike as early as June.
Today, gold and silver pared their recent gains due to the stronger dollar against the Japanese yen. However, both metals were still heading for weekly gains.
The market is waiting for the results of the Euro Group meeting today for more information on the 19 EU member states’ financial and economic initiatives and policies, which can have a large impact on the economic health of the Eurozone.
Fig. EURUSD H4 Technical Chart
EURUSD has been moving between the range of 1.12446 and 1.14624 since the beginning of the month. The pair is now hovering at 1.12248 with RSI staying at level 31 and heading into the oversold territory. With downward pressure from the moving average above, the price is expected to test the support level at 1.11367, formed on March 24, 2016.
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.11367 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.12242 valid until April 22, 2016