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Season of Earning Report Starts, IMF Issues Economic Outlook -

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Apr, 10th 16:25

OB market outlook

Last Friday, U.S stocks closed higher but could not avoid the worst weekly retreat in the last two months. The rally was due to a surge in crude that boosted energy shares offset a slump in biotechnology shares.

Oil advanced the most in two months after data from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude production continued to slide. U.S. crude production dropped by 14,000 barrels a day to 9.01 million a day, meanwhile active U.S. oil rigs has plunged steadily, slipping to 354 this week from 1,609 rigs in October 2014. Moreover, refinery utilization rates rose ahead of the summer driving season by 1 percentage point for a second weekly gain, to 91.4 percent of total capacity.

The talk between major producers to discuss freezing output is due on April 17 in Doha. Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia is seeking a successful result from the Doha meeting. However, the fate of the historic accord remains quite uncertain as Arab Saudi stated that this kingdom would only join the deal unless other suppliers, including Iran, follow the suit. The statement from biggest producers of OPEC was no different from an end sign for attempts of the others to control the output and stabilize prices. What the markets should do now maybe hold their breath and wait for an unprecedented cooperation to happen next Sunday.

Next week, a batch of U.S companies are going to reports their earnings in the first quarter of this year, led by Alcoa Inc on Monday.

A number of U.S. Fed officials including Fed Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan, Fed Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker, Fed Bank of San Francisco President John Williams, FedBank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker, etc are wildly expected to give their views on U.S tightening path. After comments by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and minutes from the March meeting this month reaffirmed officials won’t rush to raise interest rates, traders are pricing in zero chances of a raise in April.

The greenback is set to volatile the most at the second half of next week as a great deal of data which contributively shows U.S economic health will be published. On Wednesday, Core retail data is forecasted to come in at 0.4 percent and the full figure is expected to gain 0.1 percent. American retail sales have remained flat despite a recovery in employment as consumers are saving more. U.S PPI and CPI for March are called for released on April 13 and 14, respectively, at positive reading after unexpected fall in February.

Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 10:00 EDT in Ottawa, with economists predicting no change, as the jobs report saw the economy add 40,600 jobs; four times the estimate, while the unemployment rate dropped to the lowest level of the last three months at 7.1 percent. Canadian dollar was able to offset some losses against the U.S dollar as it received the support from both upbeat data and soaring crude price.

Like the BOC, no changes are expected from the Bank of England next week. The BOE will release its latest interest rate decision amid signs of a slowing economy. Besides, the BOE will have a hard time voicing their opinion on the benefits and risks of continued British membership in the European Union. Before that, U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne is due to publish the Treasury’s analysis of the so-called “Brexit”, ahead of the pending June 23 referendum on the issue. The official campaign for the U.K.’s EU referendum is due to officially start on Friday.

The International Monetary Fund issues its World Economic Outlook and its Fiscal Monitor report on the latest developments in public finance, before spring meetings with the World Bank starting on April 15. The meetings, focused on the global economy and financial markets, will last through April 17 in Washington.

China inflation for March will come out before the report of this country’s GDP growth. China’s gross domestic product is projected to slow in the first quarter, even after a rash of monetary and fiscal stimulus. March figures for industrial output, retail sales and fixed asset investment are released at the same time.

Gold advanced 1.5 percent on a weekly basis trading at $1,241, as a weaker dollar left the precious metal in a good position to advance after the minutes from the FOMC statement in March showed dovish stance.

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