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Midday Market Outlook 2 Feb -

Feb, 02nd 15:05


Midday Market Outlook

Euro-zone​​ labor market conditions modestly improving as the jobless rate​​ decreased to a 4 year low in January​​ according to the Unemployment rate data released on Tuesday.​​ The jobless rate in Germany decreased to 6.2 percent which is the lowest level since German reunification in 1990. The number of unemployed people in Germany is slaked by 20k​​ in​​ January​​ .The number of unemployed people in Spain rises 57.2k in January against the forecasted 71.2k which signals improvement in Spanish labor market condition​​ .

UK construction PMI in January released on Tuesday indicates the weakest expansion of the output growth in construction sector since April,2015. It is declined to 55.8 from 57.8 in December.​​ Apart from the pre election slowdown last year, the latest expansion was the lowest since June ,2013.

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the interest rate on hold at2.0 percent after scrutinizing current global economic sluggishness and​​ also hinted the possibility of further monetary easing if necessary. RBA governor Glenn Stevens was optimistic today about the local economy as he said the bank's board pronounced reasonable prospects for continued growth in the economy​​ with keeping inflation lower level.


EURUSD rebounded sharply towards upside on Monday after having a drastic fall on Friday, last week. Today it has climbed 0.22 percent so far.​​ German unemployment rate fell to record low in December​​ 


Fig: EURUSD Hourly Technical Chart

EURUSD still remains in a ranging market. Currently it is testing the 1.0920 support. If it can breach that support it would go further upside towards 1.0950. On the hourly chart, price has crossed above SMA50​​ and SMA200 and Stochastic also turned up higher. ​​ If EURUSD can breach above 1.10 level it would increase the volume of buyers .

Trade Suggestion

Buy Digital Call at​​ ​​ 1.0920​​ and Digital Put at​​ 1.0940.


GBPUSD​​ drove higher swiftly on Monday propelled by the good manufacturing PMI data. It rose 1.30 percent on Monday. Today it has slipped 0.23 percent so far​​ after being rejected by a resistance@1.4432.


Fig: GBPUSD Hourly Chart

On the hourly chart, GBPUSD has crossed above SMA50 and SMA200. It has formed interim support @1.4352​​ and continued moving towards upside. The intraday bias is bullish. A sustained move above 1.4480 would open the door towards 1.4600.

Trade Suggestion

Buy Digital Call at​​ 1.4485 and Digital Put​​ at​​ 1.4570.


USDJPY​​ has been correcting towards downside​​ since Monday​​ against the strong rally propelled by the BOJ’s negative interest decision.​​ Today it has slipped 0.24% so far.


Fig: USDJPY Hourly Technical Chart

On the hourly chart, USDJPY has crossed below SMA50 and formed an interim support @120.33. Currently it is rebounding to breach above the​​ downward sloping diagonal. If it can breach above 121.34 it might​​ stage another strong rally. Conversely if it breaks below 120.30 it would go for deeper correction.

Trade Suggestion:

Buy Digital Call at 121.40 and Digital Put at​​ 122.20.


AUDUSD​​ ​​ has declined 0.86 percent ​​ so far today after the decision of keeping interest on hold at 2 percent by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).


Fig: AUDUSD Hourly Technical Chart.

AUDUSD is currently reading at the bottom of​​ well established​​ downward sloping channel​​ on the hourly chart. Price is below SMA50 and SMA200 and stochastic also turned down lower. A break below the current support @0.7040 would spur the momentum towards further downside. On the other hand if it gets support by the bottom of channel it would try to break the immediate resistance @0.7072.

Trade Suggestion:

​​ Buy Digital Put at 0.7030 and Digital Call at​​ 0.7010.


XAUUSD​​ has continued rallying towards upside​​ in​​ this week​​ after having​​ a​​ significant retracement last week. It made a fresh​​ three month high today @1130.43.


Fig: XAUUSD Hourly Technical Chart.

XAUUSD slipped 0.26 percent so far today after creating a high @1130.43. It has formed interim support at 123.00. On the hourly chart, price has remained​​ above SMA50 and SMA200 though stochastic​​ has​​ bended​​ down.​​ The intraday bias is bullish. If current support holds it might go towards 1136.00 level.

Trade Suggestion:

Buy Digital Call at 1127.00 and Digital Put at​​ 1133.00.

Crude Oil

Crude Oil​​ ​​ has been strongly bearish from the starting of this week. It broke​​ the upward sloping channel of recent rally propelled by the Chinese weak economic data. It​​ fell 7.47% on Monday. Today so far it​​ has declined 3.05%​​ USOilH1.png.Fig: USOil Hourly Technical Chart

Crude Oil​​ is currently trading near the major support @30.20. A breakdown of 30.20 would pave the way to go further down towards 28.00 level. On the hourly chart, price is below SMA50 and SMA200 and Stochastic is indicating sustained bearish momentum. The intraday bias in Crude Oil is bearish.

Trade Suggestion:

Buy Digital Put at 31.00 and Digital Call at 29.20 if it tests the 31.50 level and gets rejection from there.​​ 


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