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Daily Report on July 19, 2016 -

Jul, 19th 07:08

Rising concerns over a crude and fuel oil glut seemed to have offset the effects of an expected reduction in US shale production and further draw-downs in US crude inventories. Oil prices slid slightly in the early trading session in Asia on Tuesday.  US Crude – West Texas Immediate – was down to $45.81 a barrel after closing at $45.91/barrel on Monday.

Asian stocks were modestly lower on Tuesday as a result of the downturn in the energy market. MSCI index – the broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan inched down 0.1% from its record nine month high, which was reached in the past week.

The Japanese yen remained stuck around one month lows, as investors still expect that the Bank of Japan may ease monetary policy further at its July meeting. The safe-haven currency was trading at 106.319 per US dollar in the Asian trading session today. Supported by a weakening yen, Japan’s benchmark index – Nikkei – soared to a near six-week high of 16634.00.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported on Monday that builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes in the US still stayed firm in July –  decreasing only 1 point from the previous reading to 59 points in July. This index has remained in a relatively narrow, yet positive range for the last six months, indicating that the housing market is on its way to a gradual recovery.

The dollar index DXY, which tracks the greenback’s value against its peers, remained positive around 96.57.

Technicals

USDCHF

usdchf h4

Fig. USDCHF H4 Technical Chart

The US dollar has been moving in an unclear fashion against the Swissie for a while, locked in a narrow range around 0.98224. RSI (14) is near the average threshold, indicating that both buyers and sellers are acting indecisively. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement is anticipated to hold up as a support level. The pair may advance strongly after some additional time spent consolidating.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 0.98364 to 0.98403 valid until 20:00 July 19, 2016

EURGBP

eurgbp h4

Fig. EURGBP H4 Technical Chart

On July 6th, the Euro reached a record high at 0.86304 versus the British sterling and since then, it has slid back slightly. However, the bearish momentum is likely to die down, as the pair is ticking up gradually after hitting the support at 0.83114, not to mention the falling ADX (14) and the shrinking distance between DI- and DI+. The two MAs may be pierced by the price action from below very shortly. Further advances are awaited.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 0.83846 to 0.84223 valid until 20:00 July 19, 2016

NZDUSD

nzdusd h4

Fig. NZDUSD H4 Technical Chart

In the early Asian trading session, the NZ dollar declined to a three-week low of 0.70112 against the USD and has bounced a little from the level. However, a low reading of RSI (14), along with a relatively high ADX (14), provides the signal that the current channel with steeply sloping down lines, is still very strong. Some correction is likely to happen before NZDUSD continues falling further.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 0.70265 to 0.70147 valid until 20:00 July 19, 2016

GOLD

gold h4

Fig. GOLD H4 Technical Chart

For the last several days, the precious metal has been stuck around the area of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement after failing to break through the record high of 1375.00 last week. As seen on the ADX indicator chart, the selling power may be  retreating now. The bull is expected to come in and take the lead in the market, leading the price higher from the support zone around the 23.6% level.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 1330.93 to 1333.90 valid until 20:00 July 19, 2016

COPPER

copper h4

Fig. COPPER H4 Technical Chart

The Stochastics chart shows that COPPER has been in overbought territory for a while and the %K line (blue line) is about to cross the %D line (red line) from above, hinting a reversal into a downtrend. Additionally, the two moving averages keep getting crossed over by the price action. Indications suggest that bearish shadows are beginning to be cast on the market. Short positions are encouraged.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 2.2292 to 2.2206 valid until 20:00 July 19, 2016

NASDAQ

ndx h4

Fig. NASDAQ H4 Technical Chart

NASDAQ is lingering around its record high of 4626.78. As is evident from the price action, the index has followed a drastic up trend since June 27th, with a substantial move of 2556 pip for now, as noted by the trend indicator. RSI (14) points downwards from the overbought threshold, implying that the upmove is coming to an end. The price is expected to pull back down to the solid support of 4544.46

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 4609.05 to 4597.62 valid until 20:00 July 19, 2016

 

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