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Apr, 18th 17:26

OB market outlook

On Monday, oil prices dipped significantly due to the failure of the meeting between major oil producers aiming to freeze production, held in Qatar last Sunday. The meeting failed because the top exporter Saudi Arabia demanded that Iran, the only OPEC member absent from the meeting, also needed to sign up to the agreement. The tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran has worried investors that the two largest producers may compete for market share by offering deep discounts, worsening the global glut unable with no solution in sight.

At the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s conference today, NY Fed President William Dudley indicated that current inflation may rise to the goal of 2% over the next few years, and the economy could warrant a normalization of the US monetary policy.

The Housing Market Index was reported at 58 after staying at 59 in March, indicating a favorable outlook on home sales. The data shows how respondents rate the current conditions and their future expectations from the “existing single-family homes” market.

Data released on Friday in China showed that in the first quarter of the year, the pace of growth in the economy was 6.7%, the lowest level since 2009. However, it was reported that the indicators of economic activity were stronger than predicted, indicating a gradual stabilization of the country’s economy. Specfically, industrial output, retail sales and exports were all strong. s

Brent crude prices dropped around 7% in early trading on Monday before gaining back to $41.70 per barrel, losing 3.35% compared with the last settlement. However, positive data about the US and Chinese economies may have helped the price to gain slightly for the rest of the session.


Fig. BRENT H4 Technical Chart

Brent prices dropped strongly from around 42.91 to below 40 after the Doha meeting yesterday. After hitting the oversold territory, the commodity seems to be recovering with the RSI hovering around level 50 and heading up, indicating increasingly stronger buying power. With the moving average supporting below, the price has moved up and covered the gap formed in the overnight session. It could hit the resistance level at 44.89, created on April 13.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 42.93 valid until April 22, 2016

Buy Digital Put Option at 42.08 valid until April 22, 2016.

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